Comment Section for What if it isn't happening, AGI is not coming?

This article titled "What if it isn't happening, AGI is not coming?" explores the possibility that the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may not be as imminent as some believe. It discusses the assumption that Large Language Models (LLMs) will evolve into AGIs, and the significant financial investment being made in this belief. The piece presents counter perspectives, arguing that we may be nearing the limits of hardware scaling for larger AI models and that there have been no major AI technology breakthroughs in recent decades. Instead, it suggests that the success of current systems is more attributed to advances in hardware computing rather than AI algorithms. It also questions the effectiveness of existing methods to understand AI capability and highlights inconsistencies in the performance of leading AI models. Despite these concerns, the article acknowledges the potential for breakthroughs given the massive investment in research. However, it warns of a potential market collapse if the high expectations around AI are not met. Without AGI, the author suggests, we will continue to see improvement in AI, but it will be in the form of new applications and methods rather than increased intelligence.