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Question: Which internal and political risks for Armenia hold the possibility of opening borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Internal Risks: 1. Increased Ethnic Tensions: Opening borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan could potentially lead to increased ethnic tensions between Armenia's largely Armenian population and the various ethnic minorities living in the two countries, such as Turks and Azerbaijanis. 2. Loss of Legitimacy: If Armenia's government moves to open the borders, it may risk losing its legitimacy among the Armenian population, as some may fear that their government is giving up too much to its neighbours. 3. Economic Consequences: Open borders may result in a loss of control over the Armenian economy, as these neighbours may be able to enter Armenia's markets more easily and gain a competitive advantage. Political Risks: 1. Re-emergence of Territorial Disputes: Opening the borders may re-open old territorial disputes between Armenia and its neighbours, as they may re-assert their claims on various disputed territories. 2. Loss of Strategic Partnerships: Opening the borders may lead to a loss of strategic partnerships with other countries, such as Russia, which may view Armenian rapprochement with Turkey and Azerbaijan as a move away from its sphere of influence. 3. Security Risks: Open borders may lead to a decrease in security for Armenia, as Turkey and Azerbaijan may be able to move personnel, weapons, and other material more easily into Armenia's territory.
March 9, 2023, 8:55 p.m.
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